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Crypto capture of foreign aid

In 2025, official development assistance (ODA) saw a record 23% decline. Historically, aid disbursements have been linked to surges in offshore bank deposits, but recent evidence suggests a shift in how these funds are diverted. Following the increased scrutiny and costs of offshore banking brought about by the Panama Papers, a portion of diverted aid has migrated toward cryptocurrency. By applying blockchain forensics to World Bank disbursements, researchers identified sharp, anonymous spikes in crypto activity on tax-haven exchanges coinciding with the arrival of aid. This suggests a leakage rate of approximately two to six cents per dollar. While the move to digital assets provides a new mechanism for concealment, the inherent transparency of public blockchain ledgers also makes these movements detectable. The findings highlight the need for targeted financial supervision and oversight specifically timed to the moment aid funds are distributed to prevent such diversions and ensure resources reach their intended recipients.

CEPR
Sumit Agarwal, Peiyi Jin, Eswar Prasad, Daniel Rabetti 23.10.2026
inequality societal polarization

The returns to viral media

Social media has fundamentally lowered the barriers to political communication, enabling US Members of Congress to reach vast audiences without the need for traditional media intermediaries. However, research into 2019–2020 data reveals that while access is widespread, the distribution of attention is highly unequal. The digital marketplace operates on a "winner-takes-all" basis, where significant financial rewards in the form of campaign contributions are predominantly tied to viral success. Consequently, a small group of political stars captures a disproportionate share of both public engagement and financial returns. This creates a paradox: social media offers broad access to the tools of communication but results in an extreme concentration of influence and resources among a few individuals who manage to dominate the platform's attention economy.

CEPR
Johannes Böken, Mirko Draca, Nicola Mastrorocco, Arianna Ornaghi 23.10.2026

Brothers in Arms, Partners in Healing: A Story about a Breakthrough in Treating Post-Traumatic Stress

The narrative follows Jeff Lindquist, a Marine veteran whose life was severely impacted by post-traumatic stress after serving in Iraq. His recovery journey began through a partnership with fellow veteran Erik Won and the application of innovative medical technology. Utilizing Magnetic e-Resonance Therapy (MeRT) and synchronized transcranial magnetic stimulation, Lindquist was able to reclaim his life from the debilitating effects of PTSD. This personal breakthrough evolved into a larger mission for both men, as they now work to provide access to these neurological treatments for others suffering from similar conditions. Their story, featured on 'War on the Rocks,' underscores the potential of advanced magnetic therapies in psychiatric care and the enduring support systems within the veteran community. The discussion serves as an educational resource regarding these emerging treatments for trauma-related mental health issues.

War on the Rocks
Jeff Lindquist 22.10.2026
energy transitiongeoeconomic confrontationcompetition

Critical minerals: The UK’s role in securing resilient supply chains

On November 5, 2026, Chatham House will host an event featuring the Business, Innovation, Science and Trade Committee to launch their report on securing resilient critical mineral supply chains. As global demand for these minerals accelerates due to the energy transition and defense needs, they have shifted from industrial policy margins to the core of economic and national security strategies. The event aims to explore how the UK can leverage its unique strengths in finance, markets, and international partnerships to build responsible and commercially viable supply chains alongside like-minded nations. Key discussion points include navigating intensifying geopolitical competition, meeting future industrial requirements, and identifying focus areas for UK policymakers and industry leaders. This session, which includes a networking segment, will bring together practitioners and policymakers to unpack the committee's findings and address the strategic dilemmas involved in shaping the next generation of global mineral ecosystems. By fostering international collaboration, the UK seeks to ensure it remains a central player in securing the vital materials necessary for future technological and security infrastructures.

Chatham House
Anonymous 22.10.2026
economic crisis inflationsanctions

US voters are angry. But on tariffs and war, the midterms won’t bring quick change

As the 2026 US midterms approach, voters are increasingly angry about the economic strain caused by the Trump administration's tariffs and the war with Iran. Despite this widespread frustration, significant policy changes are unlikely in the near term. Historically, even when voters signal disapproval of foreign policy, as they did in 2006, the executive branch often doubles down on its agenda. In the current context, Trump appears poised to expand the Iran war and initiate new rounds of 'section 301' and 'section 232' tariffs on the EU and other economies. While Congress possesses tools like the War Powers Act and the 'power of the purse,' these have historically been ineffective at curbing executive action due to presidential vetoes and legislative gridlock. Democrats plan investigations into trade corruption, but deep disagreements over trade policy hinder a unified legislative response. Consequently, despite the potential for a shifted congressional balance, the executive branch's control over foreign policy and trade means voters' demands for lower prices and military de-escalation may go unaddressed, potentially fueling further political instability ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Chatham House
LToremark 22.10.2026
political oppression economic crisis inequality

Why has Egypt’s President Sisi said he will step down in 2030?

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi has announced he will step down at the end of his third term in 2030, a move that would make him the first Egyptian leader to leave office peacefully without death or upheaval. The decision appears driven by an unsustainable, debt-financed economic model that has caused plummeting living standards and a rising poverty rate, threatening regime stability. To ensure a controlled transition, Sisi has introduced a military-approved succession plan involving a 30-month training course at the Military Academy for future leaders. This system effectively institutionalizes the military as the guardian of the state, as mandated by the 2019 constitutional amendments. While the plan creates a pathway for civilian leadership, the military is expected to retain decisive influence over governance. Potential obstacles include legal challenges to the new candidate criteria and regional instability that might tempt Sisi to reconsider. However, if the pledge holds, it could end the tradition of lifelong rule and initiate a long-term shift toward a more stable, albeit military-overseen, political system.

Chatham House
thilton.drupal 22.10.2026
political oppression conflict

Will the US midterms change Washington’s policy on Israel and Palestine?

While the 2026 US midterm elections will not immediately shift foreign policy due to President Trump’s executive control, they represent a significant turning point in the Democratic Party's stance on Israel and Palestine. A Democratic victory in Congress would establish a new policy baseline for a potential 2029 Democratic administration. Recent trends show nearly unanimous Democratic support for resolutions demanding Israeli accountability, contrasting with fragmented positions in previous years. High-profile progressive candidates like Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed are vocalizing shifts in voter sentiment, with polls showing increased negativity toward the Israeli government across the US electorate. If Democrats gain control of the House or Senate, they can use committee hearings, oversight of arms sales, and investigations into settlement expansion to pressure the executive branch. This period would likely focus on removing legal barriers to US-Palestinian relations and advocating for Palestinian self-determination. Ultimately, the midterms serve as a referendum on this shifting political center of gravity, potentially setting the terms for a fundamentally different American approach to the region by the end of the decade.

Chatham House
jon.wallace 22.10.2026
competitiongreat power politicssecurity

The Endless Chip War

In this Cogs of War interview, Rakesh Kumar, author of 'Chip Age: How Semiconductors Became the World’s Most Powerful Resource,' explores the profound geopolitical significance of the semiconductor industry. Drawing on over two decades of experience as a researcher, professor, and industry advisor, Kumar explains why chipmaking remains an evergreen technology with expanding global implications. The discussion aims to clarify major misconceptions surrounding 'chip wars,' emphasizing that the competition for semiconductor supremacy is a long-standing and complex struggle rather than a fleeting trend. As semiconductors underpin modern technology and national security, Kumar’s insights provide a necessary perspective on how these components dictate the balance of power between nations. The interview underscores the permanent nature of this technological rivalry and the strategic necessity of securing chip supply chains in an increasingly digital world.

War on the Rocks
Rakesh Kumar 22.10.2026
energy security securityconflict

The West Is Thinking Too Small About Ukraine’s Victory

Since fall 2023, a repetitive cycle has emerged between Ukraine and its international supporters regarding energy security. Ukraine consistently warns that Russia is targeting its power grid to deprive the population of heat and essential services during winter. Despite these warnings, allies provide insufficient support for hardening critical infrastructure. This forces Ukrainians to rely on their own ingenuity to survive the season. When a total collapse is avoided, the West celebrates Ukrainian resilience and shifts focus to other priorities, only for the cycle to repeat the following year. This reactive pattern suggests that Western supporters are thinking too small about Ukraine's victory, prioritizing short-term survival over the robust, long-term strategic support needed to secure the nation's future. By failing to break this cycle of inadequate aid, the international community risks overlooking the sustained investment required for a definitive Ukrainian success.

War on the Rocks
Alanna Novetsky 22.10.2026
nukessecuritycooperation

Towards a new framework for nuclear deterrence in Europe: European perceptions of Russian nuclear policy and the role of the UK and France in NATO's nuclear posture

This study examines how non-nuclear European NATO Allies perceive Russian nuclear policy and the potential roles of the United Kingdom and France in shaping Europe’s nuclear deterrence framework. Amidst heightened Russian belligerence and a shifting transatlantic landscape, the UK and France have unique opportunities to influence NATO's nuclear posture. The research employs a qualitative multi-method approach, including literature reviews and scenario-based interviews with 18 researchers from 10 European NATO Allies. Key findings suggest that while US-centric thinking dominates how Allies assess nuclear contributions, there is a clear opening for the UK to better articulate its approach to extended deterrence. In contrast, France's 'forward deterrence' initiative focus on escalation management and cooperation rather than formal guarantees. Additionally, the report analyzes Russia’s 2024 revised nuclear policy, characterizing it as a declaratory signaling tool intended to induce Western caution rather than an automatic operational directive. The authors conclude by offering six conceptual questions to guide future policy discussions regarding strategic objectives, mission requirements, and force attributes necessary for a credible European deterrence and assurance posture.

RAND
Artur Honich, Thomas Kenchington, Ondrej Palicka 22.10.2026
ORSAM AI LAB